combinación de diagrama tikz (con salida dia)

Question

Estoy intentando crear este diagrama:

Logré crear las cajas con este código.

\begin{tikzpicture}[node distance=1cm, auto,]
\node[punkt] (market) {Update tree};
\node[ above=of market] (dummy) {};
\node[punkt, above=of dummy] (dummy3) {Draw $\Delta t$};
\node[punkt, right=of dummy] (t) {Draw $\rho | \Delta t, y$};
\node[punkt, left=of dummy] (comparison) {Compare with observed tree};

\end{tikzpicture}

y creando las flechas en dia, incluso pude obtener el código de látex para las flechas con un código generado muy complejo (ver al final, no sé si debería agregarlo).

Pero cuando combino ambos códigos obtengo errores y no puedo realizar la trama. Se agradece cualquier ayuda.

\ifx\du\undefined
  \newlength{\du}
\fi
\setlength{\du}{15\unitlength}
\begin{tikzpicture}
\pgftransformxscale{1.000000}
\pgftransformyscale{-1.000000}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{1.000000, 1.000000, 1.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% image rendering not supported\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\draw (-403.700000\du,42.500000\du)--(-403.700000\du,42.500000\du);
}
\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\pgfpathmoveto{\pgfpoint{-417.949962\du}{9.949999\du}}
\pgfpatharc{269}{143}{1.429551\du and 1.429551\du}
\pgfusepath{stroke}
}
\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\pgfpathmoveto{\pgfpoint{-411.049840\du}{13.600048\du}}
\pgfpatharc{287}{251}{7.759989\du and 7.759989\du}
\pgfusepath{stroke}
}
\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\pgfpathmoveto{\pgfpoint{-415.650500\du}{14.649839\du}}
\pgfpatharc{108}{70}{7.125443\du and 7.125443\du}
\pgfusepath{stroke}
}
\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\pgfpathmoveto{\pgfpoint{-419.057248\du}{15.891588\du}}
\pgfpatharc{196}{113}{1.974003\du and 1.974003\du}
\pgfusepath{stroke}
}
\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\pgfpathmoveto{\pgfpoint{-416.112627\du}{12.991865\du}}
\pgfpatharc{115}{2}{1.629642\du and 1.629642\du}
\pgfusepath{stroke}
}
\pgfsetlinewidth{0.100000\du}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetdash{}{0pt}
\pgfsetbuttcap
{
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetfillcolor{dialinecolor}
% was here!!!
\pgfsetarrowsend{stealth}
\definecolor{dialinecolor}{rgb}{0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000}
\pgfsetstrokecolor{dialinecolor}
\pgfpathmoveto{\pgfpoint{-408.800310\du}{18.349868\du}}
\pgfpatharc{114}{-118}{4.669774\du and 4.669774\du}
\pgfusepath{stroke}
}

Answer 1

Solo Tikz:

\documentclass{article}

\usepackage{tikz}
\usetikzlibrary{positioning}

\tikzset{
  punkt/.style={
    draw,
    rounded corners = 2pt,
    align=center,
    text width=2.5cm
  },
  %
  myarrows/.style={
    ->, 
    shorten <=2pt, 
    shorten >=2pt
  }
}

\begin{document}

\begin{tikzpicture}[node distance=1cm, auto,]
\node[punkt] (market) {Update tree};
\node[above=of market] (dummy) {};
\node[punkt, above=of dummy] (dummy3) {Draw $\Delta t$};
\node[punkt, right=of dummy] (t) {Draw $\rho | \Delta t, y$};
\node[punkt, left=of dummy] (comparison) {Compare with observed tree};

\draw[myarrows] (market.east) arc (225:495:2);
\draw[myarrows] (comparison.east) to [bend right] (t.west);
\draw[myarrows] (t.west) to [bend right] (comparison.east);

\draw[myarrows] (comparison.north east) to [bend right] (dummy3.south);
\draw[myarrows] (dummy3.west) to [bend right] (comparison.north) ;


\end{tikzpicture}

\end{document}